Oct 14 2014

Betting Business is booming

Although the match fixing in football makes lately have unpleasant headlines, sports betting is enjoying growing popularity in Germany. The German sports betting market is moving, which can be seen in sports betting site like allpro collage bowls. The already existing only limited monopoly of the state sports betting could fall or be consolidated with a new legal basis. Public and private providers are now fighting hard for their market share.

To the LandesbankRheinlandPfalz invokes the Exchange and publishes its own newspaper articles about sports betting. Is the private sports betting operators is already given a significant position in the German market for sports betting? Private providers have been in 2004, possessed a market share of around 74%. In addition, very small and insignificant the sports betting market in Germany is long gone. According to the Cologne Institute Sports and market, 10.4 million people in Germany show interest in sports betting.

Seven million bet currently active on the Internet from private providers such as Bwin, Starbet or Bluevex. The share of the global market for sports betting online betting games is, according to the website of the sports betting experts and business consultant Jens H. Leinert at about 35 percent. Although so Leinert further in 2004, most betting revenue is generated, is still offline, but at least 2% or € 8 billion came from online betting games.

In recent years, the various providers of sports betting developed unevenly. The gross betting revenue from private providers Bwin was 2004, for example, nearly three times higher than in the previous year. The profits of the provider Bet-at-home and Sportwetten.de stagnated. The state has experienced provider Oddset even declining revenues. According to the info graphic in an article in the Frankfurter AllgemeineZeitung of 28 March 2006 declined, while sales at Oddset of 540 million euros in 2000 to 430 million in 2005.

Sports betting friend like that will not matter, however, is Oddset as state providers obliged to give up part of its income for charitable purposes. The legal deposit for a good cause is, depending on the province between 15% and 20%. The states will receive an additional 16.66% of the revenue of the state sports betting operator as lottery tax. Decreasing revenues from Oddset could therefore complicate the financing of social sectors such as the grassroots.

Apr 24 2014

How to bet the Away Team in College Basketball

When betting college basketball, the home court is a factor. The home court advantage is a true advantage, because the home team is on their own grounds, which is a familiar and often friendly environment. The fans are typically supportive of the home team. With the pressure of the fans, combined with the road team having to travel, it is often difficult to pick up a straight up win on the road. While it might be challenging a basketball team to win on the road, it does not mean that the visiting team cannot be bet profitably when betting college basketball. A college basketball bettor is well served avoiding the money line when betting the road team.

In college basketball odds, the home team wins outright over 70% of the time, with the favorite team taking down the game over 75% of the time straight up. However, when the point spread is brought into the equation, the away team wins over 52% of the time. If the home team wins outright over 70% of the time, yet the away team comes out on top over 52% of the time, this suggests that the away team is best bet taking points when they are the underdog. To confirm that betting theory, we notice that the away dog wins over 51% of the games played. This confirms that we are best off betting the point spread and taking points when we are betting on a road dog in college basketball.

When the away team is favored, they win over 75% of the time on enemy territory. When the spread comes into play, the away team giving points covers nearly 60% of the time. This suggests that either betting line is a profitable path to follow when betting the road team as the favorite. Considering there is a 15% difference on away favorites between straight up results and the spread, a bettor is best served checking the money line to determine the difference in payout before deciding which way to bet. If the money line sits at 115 or closer, stick with the money line for the visiting favorite. If the money line is above 115, spot the home team points and bet the road favorite via the point spread line.

When betting the away team in college basketball, the basketball bettor is best served taking points when their team is a dog, while looking at the money line to determine the more profitable route in betting them as a favorite, such as the Duke Basketball Team. If the money line exceeds 115, spot the home team points on the bet. However, if the money line is 115 or closer, betting straight up via the money line is the most profitable angle.

Apr 22 2014

Understand the betting odds

When talking about sports betting on football matches, we always need to think about the odds that the bookmakers like Bet at home, bet365 and William Hill offer to us. This is one of the most important parts of each successful bet. It is as important as the process of making the prediction itself.

In general, to be profitable, each player must firstly consider does the odds he is going to bet on have any value or not. It is really simple to calculate this with few very simple rules which if followed will save you lots of wrong bets which would bring you loses in the long run.

How can we calculate whether the proposed by the bookmakers odds has value or not? It is very simple. To do that it is necessary to convert our prediction in a percentage. Take for instance the upcoming semi-final of the FA Cup between Wigan and Arsenal. There is no doubt Arsenal will be the favorite in this match, but the exact question is how huge are their chances of winning this match.

Wigan just beat Manchester City as a guest and are fighting for the Championship playoffs for an entry in the Premier League. Let’s give them a 8% chance of winning this match. The draw in the regular time mustn’t be excluded too, so let’s suppose there are 18-20 percents chance this match to end with a draw. The remaining 72% are for an Arsenal’s win in the regular time. It is huge, right? Also, it correspondents with the statistics for the last 8matches between the two teams, in which Arsenal has six wins, Wigan one and one match finished in a draw.

Let’s go back to the odds offered by the bookmakers like bet365, William Hill and Bet at Home. Currently the rate for Arsenal is about 1.3. Is it justified that bet? Think about if for a minute…

The answer is no. At chances around 72%, the actual odds has to be 1.38 for even, not to mention to gain some profit. It is calculated simply with 100/72 = 1.38. The odds for a draw is 4.5 and for a Wigan’s victory 8.5. Both are not enough for a justified bet.

So, no matter how attractive seems a bet for an Arsenal’s win, the bet is not justified. In other words, if you bet 100 times for Arsenal, you will hardly be able to get some profit in the long turn.

Apr 16 2014

Betting review for Everton versus Crystal Palace


Forget the fixture list at the moment and give Everton fans the chance to dream- if Everton win their remaining 5 games to be played this season, the side will have the chance to play in the Champions League next campaign. That was the promise made to Bill Kenwright by Roberto Martinez when he took over as manager in the summer and there is every chance that he can make good on that in the first time of asking.

Depending on the Arsenal result on Tuesday night, Everton could either still be in 4th place in the Premier League or in 5th when this game kicks off, but a win would move them back into the top four regardless of the Gunners result. The side will be confident in winning their remaining games at Goodison Park where Everton are 12-3-1 this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding 13.

Everton beat Sunderland 0-1 at the Stadium of Light on Saturday to extend their run to 7 wins in a row in the Premier League which has seen them drag Arsenal back and then overtake them. They have been more impressive at home where Everton have won their last 9 games in all competitions, including 7 in a row in the Premier League which culminated in the 3-0 hammering of Arsenal ten days ago.

Phil Jagielka and Steven Pienaar are not ready to return to the squad just yet, although the former could be back in time for the weekend game against Manchester United.


Crystal Palace

The football played by Tony Pulis sides may not be to the liking of every football fan around the country, but there is no denying the effectiveness of it. Pulis should also be greatly respected for the motivation he has found in a Crystal Palace team that looked certain to be relegated when he took over from Ian Holloway. Right now, Pulis looks set to extend his proud record of never being relegated after Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 1-0 at home over the weekend.

That win pushed Crystal Palace up to the heady heights of 12th in the Premier League and they are also 7 points clear of Fulham in the relegation zone as well as just 3 points short of the 40 points that teams aim for when looking to avoid the drop. Their success has come on a very solid home record, but Palace have made life difficult away from Selhurst Park despite a 3-2-11 record where they have scored 9 goals and conceded 21.

Crystal Palace have won their last 3 Premier League games, including a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea, which has kept them clear of the relegation troubles below them. That run of wins also saw them snap a streak of 6 away Premier League games without a win as they beat Cardiff City 0-3 in Wales.

Kagisho Dikgacoi and Yannick Bolasie will both need to pass fitness tests to take their place in the squad for this game.


Head to Head

These sides played out a goalless draw at Selhurst Park earlier this season.

Everton beat Crystal Palace 4-0 at Goodison Park when they last met here in the 2005 Premier League season, but they had failed to win 2 previous home games against them.



In all honesty, it doesn’t matter what happens in the Arsenal game against West Ham United on Tuesday as Roberto Martinez will know anything less than three points in this game will make it very difficult for Everton to make the top four.

The game against Crystal Palace at Goodison Park, with all due respect to the Eagles, is the easiest of their home games left and Everton can’t expect to beat Manchester United and Manchester City so dropping points in this one would be a huge body blow to the mental state of the squad.

Everton have put in a lot of work to claw back and overtake Arsenal and have been playing very well at home all season, but Tony Pulis has made Crystal Palace very difficult to beat. I expect he will set out a stall to do the same to Everton having pushed Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal to dig deep to beat them.

However, Palace have some problems when it comes to scoring goals away from Selhurst Park and that may prove to be their downfall in this game. Prior to the three goals scored at Cardiff City, Palace had scored just 1 in 6 away games in the League and that could be a problem for them at Everton on Wednesday night.

I don’t think Everton will blow away Crystal Palace just with the way the away side set up, but there is creativity and confidence in the home team that suggests they will find a way to win this game. I believe they will too, but it may be down to the clean sheet and a solitary strike to earn those vital three points in the chase for a Champions League place.

Apr 08 2014

My first impressions of betting against the dropping odds

Several days ago, I started to bet with a new betting strategy related to betting on Asian handicap on matches where is detected dropping of odds for one of the teams. The idea behind this betting strategy is simple. Many bets made by the punters worldwide for one of the teams force the bookies (even the biggest like bet365, William Hill and Bet at home) to change the rates for both teams. Once the odds are changes they no longer correspond with the main prediction for the match made by the bookmakers, which is generally much more accurate than the prediction an ordinary bettor can do. Thus, it is possible to bet on a higher odds than the real relative strength of the both teams.

The time will tell whether this system is profitable or not, but here’s what happened after the first week. It has to be noted that I bet mainly with bet365 and sometimes with other bookmakers like William Hill and bet-at-home. Additional clarification is that I bet on matches where the movement of odds is higher than 10%.

To find such matches I use the odds movement section of the website betexplorer, where by their filters I can easily follow the changes in the coefficients of 7 sports including football, basketball, tennis and hockey.

Unfortunately, it can be said that the first few bets on this system didn’t go as expected. Although I have not lost much money, it seems to be very difficult to make some profit as the success rate is about 40%.

Of course, the final conclusion must be made after larger selection of matches, because in football for example the odds movement usually don’t change the Asian handicap rate given by the bookies, but only the odds itself. This means that the impact will be seen over time and it won’t be seen in the percentage of the success rate.

Anyway, this betting system is interesting and will be a source of many interesting conclusions that will surely lead to new betting ideas which can be successful some day.

Mar 18 2014

Methodical Correct Score Betting – Part 2

Team Selection:

For example, in order to win a possible £3,000, 30 teams should be selected.
Select only those teams likely to win one home game 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 during the targeted season.

An example we have seen selects the 30 teams as follows:

Eight from the English Premier League (the top eight from the previous season)
Seven in the English Championship (the three relegated sides from the Premier League plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from the Championship)
Seven in English League One (the three relegated sides from the Championship plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from League One)
Eight in English League Two (the four relegated sides from League One plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from League Two)

Selection of the Desired Correct Score

1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 are ‘common’ scores in league games. The selection is entirely according to personal preference but 2-0 or 2-1 are ideal because the odds for these scores are usually somewhere around 11.0.

Whatever the selected score, it is of vital importance to stick with it for all bets up until the end of the season, without exceptions.

As soon as a team wins its £100, it is crossed off the list and betting continues only with the remaining teams.

The first bet is always on a selected team’s first home fixture of the season. The bet will be, for example, £10 on 2-0 at odds of 11.0, with some stake adjustment needed if the maximum odds available in the market differ.

With a little luck, one or two of the selected 30 teams will win their first fixture 2-0. These teams are immediately crossed off the list, the £100 win is banked, and betting continues only with the remaining teams.

In the 2nd round the stake is, for example, £11 in order to win £110 to recover the losses of the first bet and still make £100 profit.

Stakes continue to rise every time the selected teams fail to win 2-0 at home.

The above table shows quite clearly that despite the high odds, the accumulation of increasing stakes per betting round becomes quite expensive to maintain if several teams don’t achieve the desired result quickly enough. However, the probability that none of the selected teams achieves the desired result during the entire season is virtually zero.

It is also vital for the chosen teams that not a single home league fixture betting opportunity is missed. As soon as this system is started it must be continued methodically, no matter what your personal forecast of each match might be.

It is up to you and the size of your betting bank how many teams to include in this system. You can choose 10 or 50 teams and play with a higher or lower starting stake or win requirement, just so long as you remain consistent.

Monitoring the system and staking exactly during each betting round also requires a high degree of precision.

A simple system: no statistics, no complicated computations, no form reading; just starting capital, good housekeeping and discipline.

Closing Remarks

The trickiest part of football roulette correct score betting is to remain focused on a game-to-game basis and to stake properly each time. It becomes simpler with time as teams win and are crossed from the list leaving fewer games to juggle.

One or two of the selected teams may not achieve the desired result during the whole season. In order to limit losses, the following strategy can be used:

The system starts as prescribed at the beginning of the season (usually in August) with ‘X’ number of teams. At the mid-season point on 1st January (or the European Winter Break), review the results and decide whether to include new teams in the system. Perhaps look at adding other ‘strong’ teams in the leagues at that point which have not yet achieved your desired result.

Mar 14 2014

Methodical Correct Score Betting

Claimed by many to be very successful, this simple football correct score betting system is based on the statistical likelihood of a certain event occurring.

In casino roulette, there is a well-known method where the player waits until a colour (red or black) has not come up ‘X’ number of times before betting on it to arrive.

He starts with a small amount, say £1, and if his chosen colour does not win, he doubles his stake in the following round, continuing in this fashion until finally it does win.

As soon as this happens he stops, cashes his money, and starts the game afresh.

The only limitations with this system are the minimum and maximum stakes employed by the casinos.

If the minimum stake is for example 100 units, the gambler must double his stakes with every losing round meaning 200, followed by 400, then 800, 1,600, etc.

However, casinos also have maximum stake limits which, can finally lead to the point where the player can only bet the maximum leaving him with an uncomfortable choice of haemhorraging more cash with each losing bet or cutting his losses and running.

The principle behind this particular system is easily transferrable to football betting and there are various betting related blogs recommending its usage in the high odds correct score market.

The strategy is to bet continually on the same score, progressively increasing stakes, until eventually the desired correct score arrives.

One of the main advantages of this system is that there is literally no maximum stake (stakes can be split with different bookmakers if necessary). The only limit is your own bank reserves.

Of course, this correct score betting strategy is also reliant on utmost discipline in sticking to the rules of the system.

This article will explore whether there is any viability in the Football Roulette Correct Score System together with our observations, improvement suggestions and advice we feel it is necessary to impart.

In football correct score betting, the odds are substantially more attractive than the traditional ‘evens’ offered by casinos betting on ‘red’ or ‘black’ in roulette.

Odds are as high as 11.0 (and sometimes higher depending upon the relative strength of the teams involved) for common full-time scores such as 2-0 or 2-1, and can be found for virtually every football match (whether using bookmakers or betting exchanges).

Advocates of the Football Roulette Correct Score System advise that it is best started at the beginning of a new football season and the main objective is to win £100 from each selected team (or whatever your fixed monetary objective is).

Mar 14 2014

Hull and Manchester City to score less than 2.5 goals

Hull City versus Manchester City is the first match of the 30th round in the Premier League. The hosts seemed to have already secured their remaining among the best in England, while Manchester City starts their battle to catch up with Chelsea in the title race.

The citizens surprisingly lost their match in the FA Cup against Wigan and dropped out on the quarterfinals. Almost certainly, they would have to leave the fight for the Champions League too, after losing against Barcelona with 0-2 at home. This means they can concentrate entirely on the league. Something that only bodes bad news for the tigers from Hull.

They in turn are 5 points ahead from the relegation zone and they have a game in hand, which puts them in a very advantageous position against the other teams which battle for their positions among the best in England.

If we look deeper into the numbers we would see that Hull is the team with the best defense of all teams who are struggling to stay in the Premier League. So far, they conceded a total of 35 goals, which is the exact number of the goals conceded by the fighting for the first place Liverpool.

In turn, the Manchester City’s forwards completely forgot how to score goals as in their last three matches from the league they have scored only one. The question is how they will perform against the solid Hull’s defense.

What do the bookies offer for a possible bet on Under 2.5 goals scored by both teams in the match? William Hill offers 2.1 and bet365 2.05. This are coefficients that are more than good for a such bet which seems pretty justified given the both team’s recent results.

Of course, we mustn’t forget that Hull conceded bereavement of Newcastle with 1-4 in their last game, but this is probable an exception. Also, a bet on Under 2.5 Goals in a Manchester City’s match is always risky, so I’ll make that bet, but with a much smaller amount than usual.

Feb 01 2014

Arsenal v Crystal Palace: Back the Gunners


With two dropped points at Southampton on Tuesday night, Arsenal surrendered their position at the summit of the Premier League to a relentless Manchester City, and many pundits are now predicting the Mancunians to stay there until May.

Up next for Arsenal though is the visit of a newly-resilient Crystal Palace who will undoubtedly look to frustrate Arsene Wenger’s men in search of another valuable point in the quest for Premier League safety.

The Gunners will be tasked with breaking down the visitors without the services of Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey but will be confident of securing their sixth win in their last eight league games and piling the pressure on Man City and Chelsea who face off on Monday night.

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace may only be four points from the dreaded drop zone, but in the current Premier League form table, they sit a lofty seventh.

This is in no small part down to the new defensive solidity and organisation brought to the club by Tony Pulis and the Eagles can now legitimately consider themselves to have every chance of survival this season.

They’ll need to be at their best on Sunday however; Arsenal have been no mood to let games pass them by this season, especially not at home. The Gunners haven’t lost on their own patch since the opening day of the season and Palace’s away record is dire. They’ve picked up just six points all year on the road.

Palace may however be buoyed by a new signing or two which could give everyone a lift, and they’ll be desperately hoping Danny Gabbidon shakes off a knock and can take his place in their backline.

Match Odds

Arsenal go into this game as huge, almost unbackable, favourites at 1.24, with Palace way out at 16.0 and The Draw currently trading at 7.2.

Is there value in backing Palace to frustrate the hosts all afternoon and emerge with a creditable draw? I don’t think so, the Gunners have more than enough quality to break the Eagles down and I think they’ll do just that.

There’s not much of an angle here; I fully expect Arsenal to win and win well and so I won’t be touching this market.

Arsenal -1

As I’ve just mentioned, I expect Arsenal to win pretty well on Sunday, and for that reason I’m interested in the handicap market. True, Palace managed to restrict Man City to just 1-0 at the Etihad, but what’s not often mentioned is that City rested several key players that day and were content to just get through the game.

The situation is different for Arsenal who know they need to keep pace with the other two teams at the summit of the league and will undoubtedly be looking to rack up a few goals. You should be able to get Arsenal -1 at around 1.75 and for me that represents a good bet.

To Score

As already mentioned, Arsenal have a few injuries in forward positions currently and as a result I like the look of Lukas Podolski to get himself on the scoresheet again. Barely used against Southampton on Tuesday, on his last full outing the German stuck two past Coventry in the FA Cup.

He looks to be returning to full fitness after a long lay off and there’s no reason he can’t notch against Palace on Sunday. If you can get him at around 3.0 or better to score at any time, do so.

Correct Score

Arsenal haven’t conceded a goal at home since the 8th December, and it is fair to assume that Crystal Palace, who have scored just five goals away from home all season, won’t break that trend. It is highly unlikely the visitors will threaten the Gunners’ goal much at all. Mathieu Flamini may be suspended, but there are players ready and willing to take his place and Palace don’t have the quality up front to take advantage.

To that end then, we must pick how many goals Arsenal will score. I think it’s difficult to pick (as correct score bets always are) but I would come down on the side of a 3-0 scoreline because it’s a significantly better price than 2-0 (8.4 compared with 6.6).

Arsenal could easily rattle up a few goals here without Palace doing an awful lot wrong and so I think I’ll back the 3-0. If you’re still not convinced by the scoreline, why not use the Arsenal Win to Nil? market as an alternative? It’s currently trading at around 1.8 but will lengthen between now and kick off.

Recommended Bets

Back Arsenal -1 at 1.75
Back Lukas Podolski to score at 3.0 or better
Back Arsenal to win 3-0 at 8.4

Jan 28 2014

Exact Set Score

This is one of the more popular live tennis wagers. The bettor has to choose both the winner of the set, and the amount of games each player will win. For example, you could wager that Player A will win 6-4, or Player B will win 7-6. Naturally, the odds will pay less for scores that favor the better player, and bigger payoffs will result from choosing a lopsided set score in favor of the underdog.

There is a lot of strategy and forethought that can go into this type of wager. Below is a simple three step process outlining how you can choose your set score.

1. Will the better player win?

The first question to ask yourself is whether or not you think the favored player will win that given set. You can base your decision on how the head to head matchups have gone historically, what surface they are playing on, the progress of the match thus far, etc. While thinking about which player you think will win the set, consider how long it takes you to decide. If you quickly decide that Player A will prevail, that should be a good indication that you are anticipating a lopsided score. If you debate back and forth over Player A or B winning the set, you probably are leaning toward a close score in the end.

2. Who is serving first?

This is important particularly if you don’t expect very many breaks of serve within the set. Say Player A serves first in a set, holds every serve, and breaks once. That set would result in a 6-3 set score in favor of Player A. However, the same one break and all holds set would wind up at 6-4 if Player A served second within the set. Understanding this simple difference is crucial when choosing your set score. Take note of who is serving first and use that information to your advantage.

3. Surface

The playing surface has a major impact on tennis matches, and you must factor it into your thinking. Sets played on clay tend to be closer because of the increased frequency of service breaks. Matches played on grass, such as at Wimbledon, usually favor big servers and see a lot of games held.

Once you have gone through these three steps, you should have a pretty good idea of what you expect the set score to be. Resist the temptation to just guess at a final score without thinking through this process. There are always hints and clues to how a match will play out – you just need to take the time to consider them carefully and combine them all into a smart choice.

Jan 02 2014

Money Management Advice

I get asked a lot about Money Management in gambling. It is not a topic I address often, because money management is just mathematical voodoo. What you can expect to lose gambling is the product of the total amount you bet and the house edge. It does not make any difference how you break up your total amount bet. Given the same game, the expected loss is the same making a million bets of $1 and one bet of $1,000,000.

While money management does not change expected loss, given the same game and total amount bet, it can affect variance. Here are some money management strategies, according to what your goal is.

Player 1 plays for the social aspect of gambling, not so much to win. He prefers to bet conservatively, minimizing his risk of losing, while at the lost of likely not winning either. This player should flat bet. In other words, his wagers should be the same every bet, or close to it.

Player 2 is a risk seeker who wishes to either win a lot or lose a little. Of course, with a high winning marker, and low losing marker, it is more likely to achieve the losing one. The appropriate strategy for player 2 is to press his luck after wins, letting them ride. Most of the time the player will hit a loss before reaching his winning goal, but sometimes hit a good run and parlay his wins to whatever makes him happy.

Player 3 is a small win seeker, at the expense of the chance of a large loss. There are many betting systems that cater to this goal, but they all press bets after losing, until there is a win. Often this player will leave the casino happy for reaching his modest winning goal, but the occasional large losses will take back all the small wins, and more.

Judging by the ratio of expected loss to total amount bet, all betting strategies and money management systems are equally worthless. How much you bet and why should depend on the reason you are playing in the first place. Whatever form of money management you choose, once a bet is made you should always follow the best mathematical play. Finally, never pay for a betting strategy. As mentioned, they are all equally worthless, so you may as well use one of the free ones easily found on the Internet.