Category: Betting predictions

Apr 16 2014

Betting review for Everton versus Crystal Palace

Everton

Forget the fixture list at the moment and give Everton fans the chance to dream- if Everton win their remaining 5 games to be played this season, the side will have the chance to play in the Champions League next campaign. That was the promise made to Bill Kenwright by Roberto Martinez when he took over as manager in the summer and there is every chance that he can make good on that in the first time of asking.

Depending on the Arsenal result on Tuesday night, Everton could either still be in 4th place in the Premier League or in 5th when this game kicks off, but a win would move them back into the top four regardless of the Gunners result. The side will be confident in winning their remaining games at Goodison Park where Everton are 12-3-1 this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding 13.

Everton beat Sunderland 0-1 at the Stadium of Light on Saturday to extend their run to 7 wins in a row in the Premier League which has seen them drag Arsenal back and then overtake them. They have been more impressive at home where Everton have won their last 9 games in all competitions, including 7 in a row in the Premier League which culminated in the 3-0 hammering of Arsenal ten days ago.

Phil Jagielka and Steven Pienaar are not ready to return to the squad just yet, although the former could be back in time for the weekend game against Manchester United.

 

Crystal Palace

The football played by Tony Pulis sides may not be to the liking of every football fan around the country, but there is no denying the effectiveness of it. Pulis should also be greatly respected for the motivation he has found in a Crystal Palace team that looked certain to be relegated when he took over from Ian Holloway. Right now, Pulis looks set to extend his proud record of never being relegated after Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 1-0 at home over the weekend.

That win pushed Crystal Palace up to the heady heights of 12th in the Premier League and they are also 7 points clear of Fulham in the relegation zone as well as just 3 points short of the 40 points that teams aim for when looking to avoid the drop. Their success has come on a very solid home record, but Palace have made life difficult away from Selhurst Park despite a 3-2-11 record where they have scored 9 goals and conceded 21.

Crystal Palace have won their last 3 Premier League games, including a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea, which has kept them clear of the relegation troubles below them. That run of wins also saw them snap a streak of 6 away Premier League games without a win as they beat Cardiff City 0-3 in Wales.

Kagisho Dikgacoi and Yannick Bolasie will both need to pass fitness tests to take their place in the squad for this game.

 

Head to Head

These sides played out a goalless draw at Selhurst Park earlier this season.

Everton beat Crystal Palace 4-0 at Goodison Park when they last met here in the 2005 Premier League season, but they had failed to win 2 previous home games against them.

 

Prediction

In all honesty, it doesn’t matter what happens in the Arsenal game against West Ham United on Tuesday as Roberto Martinez will know anything less than three points in this game will make it very difficult for Everton to make the top four.

The game against Crystal Palace at Goodison Park, with all due respect to the Eagles, is the easiest of their home games left and Everton can’t expect to beat Manchester United and Manchester City so dropping points in this one would be a huge body blow to the mental state of the squad.

Everton have put in a lot of work to claw back and overtake Arsenal and have been playing very well at home all season, but Tony Pulis has made Crystal Palace very difficult to beat. I expect he will set out a stall to do the same to Everton having pushed Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal to dig deep to beat them.

However, Palace have some problems when it comes to scoring goals away from Selhurst Park and that may prove to be their downfall in this game. Prior to the three goals scored at Cardiff City, Palace had scored just 1 in 6 away games in the League and that could be a problem for them at Everton on Wednesday night.

I don’t think Everton will blow away Crystal Palace just with the way the away side set up, but there is creativity and confidence in the home team that suggests they will find a way to win this game. I believe they will too, but it may be down to the clean sheet and a solitary strike to earn those vital three points in the chase for a Champions League place.

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Mar 14 2014

Hull and Manchester City to score less than 2.5 goals

Hull City versus Manchester City is the first match of the 30th round in the Premier League. The hosts seemed to have already secured their remaining among the best in England, while Manchester City starts their battle to catch up with Chelsea in the title race.

The citizens surprisingly lost their match in the FA Cup against Wigan and dropped out on the quarterfinals. Almost certainly, they would have to leave the fight for the Champions League too, after losing against Barcelona with 0-2 at home. This means they can concentrate entirely on the league. Something that only bodes bad news for the tigers from Hull.

They in turn are 5 points ahead from the relegation zone and they have a game in hand, which puts them in a very advantageous position against the other teams which battle for their positions among the best in England.

If we look deeper into the numbers we would see that Hull is the team with the best defense of all teams who are struggling to stay in the Premier League. So far, they conceded a total of 35 goals, which is the exact number of the goals conceded by the fighting for the first place Liverpool.

In turn, the Manchester City’s forwards completely forgot how to score goals as in their last three matches from the league they have scored only one. The question is how they will perform against the solid Hull’s defense.

What do the bookies offer for a possible bet on Under 2.5 goals scored by both teams in the match? William Hill offers 2.1 and bet365 2.05. This are coefficients that are more than good for a such bet which seems pretty justified given the both team’s recent results.

Of course, we mustn’t forget that Hull conceded bereavement of Newcastle with 1-4 in their last game, but this is probable an exception. Also, a bet on Under 2.5 Goals in a Manchester City’s match is always risky, so I’ll make that bet, but with a much smaller amount than usual.

Feb 01 2014

Arsenal v Crystal Palace: Back the Gunners

Arsenal

With two dropped points at Southampton on Tuesday night, Arsenal surrendered their position at the summit of the Premier League to a relentless Manchester City, and many pundits are now predicting the Mancunians to stay there until May.

Up next for Arsenal though is the visit of a newly-resilient Crystal Palace who will undoubtedly look to frustrate Arsene Wenger’s men in search of another valuable point in the quest for Premier League safety.

The Gunners will be tasked with breaking down the visitors without the services of Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey but will be confident of securing their sixth win in their last eight league games and piling the pressure on Man City and Chelsea who face off on Monday night.

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace may only be four points from the dreaded drop zone, but in the current Premier League form table, they sit a lofty seventh.

This is in no small part down to the new defensive solidity and organisation brought to the club by Tony Pulis and the Eagles can now legitimately consider themselves to have every chance of survival this season.

They’ll need to be at their best on Sunday however; Arsenal have been no mood to let games pass them by this season, especially not at home. The Gunners haven’t lost on their own patch since the opening day of the season and Palace’s away record is dire. They’ve picked up just six points all year on the road.

Palace may however be buoyed by a new signing or two which could give everyone a lift, and they’ll be desperately hoping Danny Gabbidon shakes off a knock and can take his place in their backline.

Match Odds

Arsenal go into this game as huge, almost unbackable, favourites at 1.24, with Palace way out at 16.0 and The Draw currently trading at 7.2.

Is there value in backing Palace to frustrate the hosts all afternoon and emerge with a creditable draw? I don’t think so, the Gunners have more than enough quality to break the Eagles down and I think they’ll do just that.

There’s not much of an angle here; I fully expect Arsenal to win and win well and so I won’t be touching this market.

Arsenal -1

As I’ve just mentioned, I expect Arsenal to win pretty well on Sunday, and for that reason I’m interested in the handicap market. True, Palace managed to restrict Man City to just 1-0 at the Etihad, but what’s not often mentioned is that City rested several key players that day and were content to just get through the game.

The situation is different for Arsenal who know they need to keep pace with the other two teams at the summit of the league and will undoubtedly be looking to rack up a few goals. You should be able to get Arsenal -1 at around 1.75 and for me that represents a good bet.

To Score

As already mentioned, Arsenal have a few injuries in forward positions currently and as a result I like the look of Lukas Podolski to get himself on the scoresheet again. Barely used against Southampton on Tuesday, on his last full outing the German stuck two past Coventry in the FA Cup.

He looks to be returning to full fitness after a long lay off and there’s no reason he can’t notch against Palace on Sunday. If you can get him at around 3.0 or better to score at any time, do so.

Correct Score

Arsenal haven’t conceded a goal at home since the 8th December, and it is fair to assume that Crystal Palace, who have scored just five goals away from home all season, won’t break that trend. It is highly unlikely the visitors will threaten the Gunners’ goal much at all. Mathieu Flamini may be suspended, but there are players ready and willing to take his place and Palace don’t have the quality up front to take advantage.

To that end then, we must pick how many goals Arsenal will score. I think it’s difficult to pick (as correct score bets always are) but I would come down on the side of a 3-0 scoreline because it’s a significantly better price than 2-0 (8.4 compared with 6.6).

Arsenal could easily rattle up a few goals here without Palace doing an awful lot wrong and so I think I’ll back the 3-0. If you’re still not convinced by the scoreline, why not use the Arsenal Win to Nil? market as an alternative? It’s currently trading at around 1.8 but will lengthen between now and kick off.

Recommended Bets

Back Arsenal -1 at 1.75
Back Lukas Podolski to score at 3.0 or better
Back Arsenal to win 3-0 at 8.4