Category: Betting strategies

Oct 14 2014

Betting Business is booming

Although the match fixing in football makes lately have unpleasant headlines, sports betting is enjoying growing popularity in Germany. The German sports betting market is moving, which can be seen in sports betting site like allpro collage bowls. The already existing only limited monopoly of the state sports betting could fall or be consolidated with a new legal basis. Public and private providers are now fighting hard for their market share.

To the LandesbankRheinlandPfalz invokes the Exchange and publishes its own newspaper articles about sports betting. Is the private sports betting operators is already given a significant position in the German market for sports betting? Private providers have been in 2004, possessed a market share of around 74%. In addition, very small and insignificant the sports betting market in Germany is long gone. According to the Cologne Institute Sports and market, 10.4 million people in Germany show interest in sports betting.

Seven million bet currently active on the Internet from private providers such as Bwin, Starbet or Bluevex. The share of the global market for sports betting online betting games is, according to the website of the sports betting experts and business consultant Jens H. Leinert at about 35 percent. Although so Leinert further in 2004, most betting revenue is generated, is still offline, but at least 2% or € 8 billion came from online betting games.

In recent years, the various providers of sports betting developed unevenly. The gross betting revenue from private providers Bwin was 2004, for example, nearly three times higher than in the previous year. The profits of the provider Bet-at-home and stagnated. The state has experienced provider Oddset even declining revenues. According to the info graphic in an article in the Frankfurter AllgemeineZeitung of 28 March 2006 declined, while sales at Oddset of 540 million euros in 2000 to 430 million in 2005.

Sports betting friend like that will not matter, however, is Oddset as state providers obliged to give up part of its income for charitable purposes. The legal deposit for a good cause is, depending on the province between 15% and 20%. The states will receive an additional 16.66% of the revenue of the state sports betting operator as lottery tax. Decreasing revenues from Oddset could therefore complicate the financing of social sectors such as the grassroots.

Apr 24 2014

How to bet the Away Team in College Basketball

When betting college basketball, the home court is a factor. The home court advantage is a true advantage, because the home team is on their own grounds, which is a familiar and often friendly environment. The fans are typically supportive of the home team. With the pressure of the fans, combined with the road team having to travel, it is often difficult to pick up a straight up win on the road. While it might be challenging a basketball team to win on the road, it does not mean that the visiting team cannot be bet profitably when betting college basketball. A college basketball bettor is well served avoiding the money line when betting the road team.

In college basketball odds, the home team wins outright over 70% of the time, with the favorite team taking down the game over 75% of the time straight up. However, when the point spread is brought into the equation, the away team wins over 52% of the time. If the home team wins outright over 70% of the time, yet the away team comes out on top over 52% of the time, this suggests that the away team is best bet taking points when they are the underdog. To confirm that betting theory, we notice that the away dog wins over 51% of the games played. This confirms that we are best off betting the point spread and taking points when we are betting on a road dog in college basketball.

When the away team is favored, they win over 75% of the time on enemy territory. When the spread comes into play, the away team giving points covers nearly 60% of the time. This suggests that either betting line is a profitable path to follow when betting the road team as the favorite. Considering there is a 15% difference on away favorites between straight up results and the spread, a bettor is best served checking the money line to determine the difference in payout before deciding which way to bet. If the money line sits at 115 or closer, stick with the money line for the visiting favorite. If the money line is above 115, spot the home team points and bet the road favorite via the point spread line.

When betting the away team in college basketball, the basketball bettor is best served taking points when their team is a dog, while looking at the money line to determine the more profitable route in betting them as a favorite, such as the Duke Basketball Team. If the money line exceeds 115, spot the home team points on the bet. However, if the money line is 115 or closer, betting straight up via the money line is the most profitable angle.

Apr 08 2014

My first impressions of betting against the dropping odds

Several days ago, I started to bet with a new betting strategy related to betting on Asian handicap on matches where is detected dropping of odds for one of the teams. The idea behind this betting strategy is simple. Many bets made by the punters worldwide for one of the teams force the bookies (even the biggest like bet365, William Hill and Bet at home) to change the rates for both teams. Once the odds are changes they no longer correspond with the main prediction for the match made by the bookmakers, which is generally much more accurate than the prediction an ordinary bettor can do. Thus, it is possible to bet on a higher odds than the real relative strength of the both teams.

The time will tell whether this system is profitable or not, but here’s what happened after the first week. It has to be noted that I bet mainly with bet365 and sometimes with other bookmakers like William Hill and bet-at-home. Additional clarification is that I bet on matches where the movement of odds is higher than 10%.

To find such matches I use the odds movement section of the website betexplorer, where by their filters I can easily follow the changes in the coefficients of 7 sports including football, basketball, tennis and hockey.

Unfortunately, it can be said that the first few bets on this system didn’t go as expected. Although I have not lost much money, it seems to be very difficult to make some profit as the success rate is about 40%.

Of course, the final conclusion must be made after larger selection of matches, because in football for example the odds movement usually don’t change the Asian handicap rate given by the bookies, but only the odds itself. This means that the impact will be seen over time and it won’t be seen in the percentage of the success rate.

Anyway, this betting system is interesting and will be a source of many interesting conclusions that will surely lead to new betting ideas which can be successful some day.

Jan 28 2014

Exact Set Score

This is one of the more popular live tennis wagers. The bettor has to choose both the winner of the set, and the amount of games each player will win. For example, you could wager that Player A will win 6-4, or Player B will win 7-6. Naturally, the odds will pay less for scores that favor the better player, and bigger payoffs will result from choosing a lopsided set score in favor of the underdog.

There is a lot of strategy and forethought that can go into this type of wager. Below is a simple three step process outlining how you can choose your set score.

1. Will the better player win?

The first question to ask yourself is whether or not you think the favored player will win that given set. You can base your decision on how the head to head matchups have gone historically, what surface they are playing on, the progress of the match thus far, etc. While thinking about which player you think will win the set, consider how long it takes you to decide. If you quickly decide that Player A will prevail, that should be a good indication that you are anticipating a lopsided score. If you debate back and forth over Player A or B winning the set, you probably are leaning toward a close score in the end.

2. Who is serving first?

This is important particularly if you don’t expect very many breaks of serve within the set. Say Player A serves first in a set, holds every serve, and breaks once. That set would result in a 6-3 set score in favor of Player A. However, the same one break and all holds set would wind up at 6-4 if Player A served second within the set. Understanding this simple difference is crucial when choosing your set score. Take note of who is serving first and use that information to your advantage.

3. Surface

The playing surface has a major impact on tennis matches, and you must factor it into your thinking. Sets played on clay tend to be closer because of the increased frequency of service breaks. Matches played on grass, such as at Wimbledon, usually favor big servers and see a lot of games held.

Once you have gone through these three steps, you should have a pretty good idea of what you expect the set score to be. Resist the temptation to just guess at a final score without thinking through this process. There are always hints and clues to how a match will play out – you just need to take the time to consider them carefully and combine them all into a smart choice.

Jan 02 2014

Money Management Advice

I get asked a lot about Money Management in gambling. It is not a topic I address often, because money management is just mathematical voodoo. What you can expect to lose gambling is the product of the total amount you bet and the house edge. It does not make any difference how you break up your total amount bet. Given the same game, the expected loss is the same making a million bets of $1 and one bet of $1,000,000.

While money management does not change expected loss, given the same game and total amount bet, it can affect variance. Here are some money management strategies, according to what your goal is.

Player 1 plays for the social aspect of gambling, not so much to win. He prefers to bet conservatively, minimizing his risk of losing, while at the lost of likely not winning either. This player should flat bet. In other words, his wagers should be the same every bet, or close to it.

Player 2 is a risk seeker who wishes to either win a lot or lose a little. Of course, with a high winning marker, and low losing marker, it is more likely to achieve the losing one. The appropriate strategy for player 2 is to press his luck after wins, letting them ride. Most of the time the player will hit a loss before reaching his winning goal, but sometimes hit a good run and parlay his wins to whatever makes him happy.

Player 3 is a small win seeker, at the expense of the chance of a large loss. There are many betting systems that cater to this goal, but they all press bets after losing, until there is a win. Often this player will leave the casino happy for reaching his modest winning goal, but the occasional large losses will take back all the small wins, and more.

Judging by the ratio of expected loss to total amount bet, all betting strategies and money management systems are equally worthless. How much you bet and why should depend on the reason you are playing in the first place. Whatever form of money management you choose, once a bet is made you should always follow the best mathematical play. Finally, never pay for a betting strategy. As mentioned, they are all equally worthless, so you may as well use one of the free ones easily found on the Internet.