Category: Betting tips and hints

Apr 22 2014

Understand the betting odds

When talking about sports betting on football matches, we always need to think about the odds that the bookmakers like Bet at home, bet365 and William Hill offer to us. This is one of the most important parts of each successful bet. It is as important as the process of making the prediction itself.

In general, to be profitable, each player must firstly consider does the odds he is going to bet on have any value or not. It is really simple to calculate this with few very simple rules which if followed will save you lots of wrong bets which would bring you loses in the long run.

How can we calculate whether the proposed by the bookmakers odds has value or not? It is very simple. To do that it is necessary to convert our prediction in a percentage. Take for instance the upcoming semi-final of the FA Cup between Wigan and Arsenal. There is no doubt Arsenal will be the favorite in this match, but the exact question is how huge are their chances of winning this match.

Wigan just beat Manchester City as a guest and are fighting for the Championship playoffs for an entry in the Premier League. Let’s give them a 8% chance of winning this match. The draw in the regular time mustn’t be excluded too, so let’s suppose there are 18-20 percents chance this match to end with a draw. The remaining 72% are for an Arsenal’s win in the regular time. It is huge, right? Also, it correspondents with the statistics for the last 8matches between the two teams, in which Arsenal has six wins, Wigan one and one match finished in a draw.

Let’s go back to the odds offered by the bookmakers like bet365, William Hill and Bet at Home. Currently the rate for Arsenal is about 1.3. Is it justified that bet? Think about if for a minute…

The answer is no. At chances around 72%, the actual odds has to be 1.38 for even, not to mention to gain some profit. It is calculated simply with 100/72 = 1.38. The odds for a draw is 4.5 and for a Wigan’s victory 8.5. Both are not enough for a justified bet.

So, no matter how attractive seems a bet for an Arsenal’s win, the bet is not justified. In other words, if you bet 100 times for Arsenal, you will hardly be able to get some profit in the long turn.

Mar 18 2014

Methodical Correct Score Betting – Part 2

Team Selection:

For example, in order to win a possible £3,000, 30 teams should be selected.
Select only those teams likely to win one home game 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 during the targeted season.

An example we have seen selects the 30 teams as follows:

Eight from the English Premier League (the top eight from the previous season)
Seven in the English Championship (the three relegated sides from the Premier League plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from the Championship)
Seven in English League One (the three relegated sides from the Championship plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from League One)
Eight in English League Two (the four relegated sides from League One plus the top four sides that didn’t win promotion from League Two)

Selection of the Desired Correct Score

1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 are ‘common’ scores in league games. The selection is entirely according to personal preference but 2-0 or 2-1 are ideal because the odds for these scores are usually somewhere around 11.0.

Whatever the selected score, it is of vital importance to stick with it for all bets up until the end of the season, without exceptions.

As soon as a team wins its £100, it is crossed off the list and betting continues only with the remaining teams.

The first bet is always on a selected team’s first home fixture of the season. The bet will be, for example, £10 on 2-0 at odds of 11.0, with some stake adjustment needed if the maximum odds available in the market differ.

With a little luck, one or two of the selected 30 teams will win their first fixture 2-0. These teams are immediately crossed off the list, the £100 win is banked, and betting continues only with the remaining teams.

In the 2nd round the stake is, for example, £11 in order to win £110 to recover the losses of the first bet and still make £100 profit.

Stakes continue to rise every time the selected teams fail to win 2-0 at home.

The above table shows quite clearly that despite the high odds, the accumulation of increasing stakes per betting round becomes quite expensive to maintain if several teams don’t achieve the desired result quickly enough. However, the probability that none of the selected teams achieves the desired result during the entire season is virtually zero.

It is also vital for the chosen teams that not a single home league fixture betting opportunity is missed. As soon as this system is started it must be continued methodically, no matter what your personal forecast of each match might be.

It is up to you and the size of your betting bank how many teams to include in this system. You can choose 10 or 50 teams and play with a higher or lower starting stake or win requirement, just so long as you remain consistent.

Monitoring the system and staking exactly during each betting round also requires a high degree of precision.

A simple system: no statistics, no complicated computations, no form reading; just starting capital, good housekeeping and discipline.

Closing Remarks

The trickiest part of football roulette correct score betting is to remain focused on a game-to-game basis and to stake properly each time. It becomes simpler with time as teams win and are crossed from the list leaving fewer games to juggle.

One or two of the selected teams may not achieve the desired result during the whole season. In order to limit losses, the following strategy can be used:

The system starts as prescribed at the beginning of the season (usually in August) with ‘X’ number of teams. At the mid-season point on 1st January (or the European Winter Break), review the results and decide whether to include new teams in the system. Perhaps look at adding other ‘strong’ teams in the leagues at that point which have not yet achieved your desired result.

Mar 14 2014

Methodical Correct Score Betting

Claimed by many to be very successful, this simple football correct score betting system is based on the statistical likelihood of a certain event occurring.

In casino roulette, there is a well-known method where the player waits until a colour (red or black) has not come up ‘X’ number of times before betting on it to arrive.

He starts with a small amount, say £1, and if his chosen colour does not win, he doubles his stake in the following round, continuing in this fashion until finally it does win.

As soon as this happens he stops, cashes his money, and starts the game afresh.

The only limitations with this system are the minimum and maximum stakes employed by the casinos.

If the minimum stake is for example 100 units, the gambler must double his stakes with every losing round meaning 200, followed by 400, then 800, 1,600, etc.

However, casinos also have maximum stake limits which, can finally lead to the point where the player can only bet the maximum leaving him with an uncomfortable choice of haemhorraging more cash with each losing bet or cutting his losses and running.

The principle behind this particular system is easily transferrable to football betting and there are various betting related blogs recommending its usage in the high odds correct score market.

The strategy is to bet continually on the same score, progressively increasing stakes, until eventually the desired correct score arrives.

One of the main advantages of this system is that there is literally no maximum stake (stakes can be split with different bookmakers if necessary). The only limit is your own bank reserves.

Of course, this correct score betting strategy is also reliant on utmost discipline in sticking to the rules of the system.

This article will explore whether there is any viability in the Football Roulette Correct Score System together with our observations, improvement suggestions and advice we feel it is necessary to impart.

In football correct score betting, the odds are substantially more attractive than the traditional ‘evens’ offered by casinos betting on ‘red’ or ‘black’ in roulette.

Odds are as high as 11.0 (and sometimes higher depending upon the relative strength of the teams involved) for common full-time scores such as 2-0 or 2-1, and can be found for virtually every football match (whether using bookmakers or betting exchanges).

Advocates of the Football Roulette Correct Score System advise that it is best started at the beginning of a new football season and the main objective is to win £100 from each selected team (or whatever your fixed monetary objective is).