Apr 08 2014

My first impressions of betting against the dropping odds

Several days ago, I started to bet with a new betting strategy related to betting on Asian handicap on matches where is detected dropping of odds for one of the teams. The idea behind this betting strategy is simple. Many bets made by the punters worldwide for one of the teams force the bookies (even the biggest like bet365, William Hill and Bet at home) to change the rates for both teams. Once the odds are changes they no longer correspond with the main prediction for the match made by the bookmakers, which is generally much more accurate than the prediction an ordinary bettor can do. Thus, it is possible to bet on a higher odds than the real relative strength of the both teams.

The time will tell whether this system is profitable or not, but here’s what happened after the first week. It has to be noted that I bet mainly with bet365 and sometimes with other bookmakers like William Hill and bet-at-home. Additional clarification is that I bet on matches where the movement of odds is higher than 10%.

To find such matches I use the odds movement section of the website betexplorer, where by their filters I can easily follow the changes in the coefficients of 7 sports including football, basketball, tennis and hockey.

Unfortunately, it can be said that the first few bets on this system didn’t go as expected. Although I have not lost much money, it seems to be very difficult to make some profit as the success rate is about 40%.

Of course, the final conclusion must be made after larger selection of matches, because in football for example the odds movement usually don’t change the Asian handicap rate given by the bookies, but only the odds itself. This means that the impact will be seen over time and it won’t be seen in the percentage of the success rate.

Anyway, this betting system is interesting and will be a source of many interesting conclusions that will surely lead to new betting ideas which can be successful some day.