Apr 22 2014

Understand the betting odds

When talking about sports betting on football matches, we always need to think about the odds that the bookmakers like Bet at home, bet365 and William Hill offer to us. This is one of the most important parts of each successful bet. It is as important as the process of making the prediction itself.

In general, to be profitable, each player must firstly consider does the odds he is going to bet on have any value or not. It is really simple to calculate this with few very simple rules which if followed will save you lots of wrong bets which would bring you loses in the long run.

How can we calculate whether the proposed by the bookmakers odds has value or not? It is very simple. To do that it is necessary to convert our prediction in a percentage. Take for instance the upcoming semi-final of the FA Cup between Wigan and Arsenal. There is no doubt Arsenal will be the favorite in this match, but the exact question is how huge are their chances of winning this match.

Wigan just beat Manchester City as a guest and are fighting for the Championship playoffs for an entry in the Premier League. Let’s give them a 8% chance of winning this match. The draw in the regular time mustn’t be excluded too, so let’s suppose there are 18-20 percents chance this match to end with a draw. The remaining 72% are for an Arsenal’s win in the regular time. It is huge, right? Also, it correspondents with the statistics for the last 8matches between the two teams, in which Arsenal has six wins, Wigan one and one match finished in a draw.

Let’s go back to the odds offered by the bookmakers like bet365, William Hill and Bet at Home. Currently the rate for Arsenal is about 1.3. Is it justified that bet? Think about if for a minute…

The answer is no. At chances around 72%, the actual odds has to be 1.38 for even, not to mention to gain some profit. It is calculated simply with 100/72 = 1.38. The odds for a draw is 4.5 and for a Wigan’s victory 8.5. Both are not enough for a justified bet.

So, no matter how attractive seems a bet for an Arsenal’s win, the bet is not justified. In other words, if you bet 100 times for Arsenal, you will hardly be able to get some profit in the long turn.