This is one of the more popular live tennis wagers. The bettor has to choose both the winner of the set, and the amount of games each player will win. For example, you could wager that Player A will win 6-4, or Player B will win 7-6. Naturally, the odds will pay less for scores that favor the better player, and bigger payoffs will result from choosing a lopsided set score in favor of the underdog.

There is a lot of strategy and forethought that can go into this type of wager. Below is a simple three step process outlining how you can choose your set score.

1. Will the better player win?

The first question to ask yourself is whether or not you think the favored player will win that given set. You can base your decision on how the head to head matchups have gone historically, what surface they are playing on, the progress of the match thus far, etc. While thinking about which player you think will win the set, consider how long it takes you to decide. If you quickly decide that Player A will prevail, that should be a good indication that you are anticipating a lopsided score. If you debate back and forth over Player A or B winning the set, you probably are leaning toward a close score in the end.

2. Who is serving first?

This is important particularly if you don’t expect very many breaks of serve within the set. Say Player A serves first in a set, holds every serve, and breaks once. That set would result in a 6-3 set score in favor of Player A. However, the same one break and all holds set would wind up at 6-4 if Player A served second within the set. Understanding this simple difference is crucial when choosing your set score. Take note of who is serving first and use that information to your advantage.

3. Surface

The playing surface has a major impact on tennis matches, and you must factor it into your thinking. Sets played on clay tend to be closer because of the increased frequency of service breaks. Matches played on grass, such as at Wimbledon, usually favor big servers and see a lot of games held.

Once you have gone through these three steps, you should have a pretty good idea of what you expect the set score to be. Resist the temptation to just guess at a final score without thinking through this process. There are always hints and clues to how a match will play out – you just need to take the time to consider them carefully and combine them all into a smart choice.

I get asked a lot about Money Management in gambling. It is not a topic I address often, because money management is just mathematical voodoo. What you can expect to lose gambling is the product of the total amount you bet and the house edge. It does not make any difference how you break up your total amount bet. Given the same game, the expected loss is the same making a million bets of $1 and one bet of $1,000,000.

While money management does not change expected loss, given the same game and total amount bet, it can affect variance. Here are some money management strategies, according to what your goal is.

Player 1 plays for the social aspect of gambling, not so much to win. He prefers to bet conservatively, minimizing his risk of losing, while at the lost of likely not winning either. This player should flat bet. In other words, his wagers should be the same every bet, or close to it.

Player 2 is a risk seeker who wishes to either win a lot or lose a little. Of course, with a high winning marker, and low losing marker, it is more likely to achieve the losing one. The appropriate strategy for player 2 is to press his luck after wins, letting them ride. Most of the time the player will hit a loss before reaching his winning goal, but sometimes hit a good run and parlay his wins to whatever makes him happy.

Player 3 is a small win seeker, at the expense of the chance of a large loss. There are many betting systems that cater to this goal, but they all press bets after losing, until there is a win. Often this player will leave the casino happy for reaching his modest winning goal, but the occasional large losses will take back all the small wins, and more.

Judging by the ratio of expected loss to total amount bet, all betting strategies and money management systems are equally worthless. How much you bet and why should depend on the reason you are playing in the first place. Whatever form of money management you choose, once a bet is made you should always follow the best mathematical play. Finally, never pay for a betting strategy. As mentioned, they are all equally worthless, so you may as well use one of the free ones easily found on the Internet.